{
 "dataset": "elite_pass_favourite_study",
 "title": "Favourite outcomes against Betfair Starting Price, 2008-2026",
 "publisher": "Elite Pass Racing",
 "cite_as": "Elite Pass Racing (2026). Favourite outcomes against Betfair Starting Price, 2008-2026. Elite Pass Research. https://www.elitepassracing.com/press/",
 "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
 "as_of": "2026-08-21",
 "corpus_start": "2008-09-03",
 "corpus_end": "2026-06-26",
 "method": {
  "favourite_definition": "lowest BSP in the race; strictly lowest = UNIQUE",
  "price_source": "Betfair win SP column carried per runner in the corpus",
  "eligibility": {
   "races_total": 71626,
   "excl_incomplete_book": 7782,
   "eligible": 60971,
   "excl_not_one_winner": 2873
  },
  "joint_favourites_excluded": 300,
  "why_excluded": "choosing one of two identical prices would invent a favourite the market never named"
 },
 "headline": {
  "races": 60671,
  "favourite_wins": 21215,
  "favourite_win_rate": 0.34967,
  "favourite_win_rate_ci95": [
   0.34589,
   0.35348
  ],
  "market_expected_wins": 21285.3,
  "actual_over_expected": 0.9967
 },
 "breakdowns": {
  "by_bsp_band": {
   "1.01-2.00": {
    "n": 7973,
    "wins": 4895,
    "actual_pct": 61.4,
    "expected_pct": 61.5
   },
   "2.01-3.00": {
    "n": 18282,
    "wins": 7432,
    "actual_pct": 40.7,
    "expected_pct": 41.1
   },
   "3.01-4.00": {
    "n": 17033,
    "wins": 5073,
    "actual_pct": 29.8,
    "expected_pct": 30.0
   },
   "4.01-6.00": {
    "n": 15174,
    "wins": 3483,
    "actual_pct": 23.0,
    "expected_pct": 22.4
   },
   ">6.00": {
    "n": 2209,
    "wins": 332,
    "actual_pct": 15.0,
    "expected_pct": 15.9
   }
  },
  "by_field_size": {
   "12-15": {
    "n": 11566,
    "wins": 3100,
    "actual_pct": 26.8,
    "expected_pct": 27.0
   },
   "16+": {
    "n": 2020,
    "wins": 452,
    "actual_pct": 22.4,
    "expected_pct": 21.2
   },
   "2-7": {
    "n": 22546,
    "wins": 9841,
    "actual_pct": 43.6,
    "expected_pct": 44.1
   },
   "8-11": {
    "n": 24539,
    "wins": 7822,
    "actual_pct": 31.9,
    "expected_pct": 31.8
   }
  },
  "by_race_type": {
   "handicap": {
    "n": 36323,
    "wins": 11030,
    "actual_pct": 30.4,
    "expected_pct": 30.4
   },
   "non-handicap": {
    "n": 24348,
    "wins": 10185,
    "actual_pct": 41.8,
    "expected_pct": 42.0
   }
  }
 },
 "limits": [
  "A win rate is not a profit rate. This dataset measures the first and says nothing about the second.",
  "No validated betting edge is claimed. Elite Pass has none.",
  "Convenience corpus, weighted toward all-weather and major courses; several source exports truncated. Descriptive/HISTORICAL only, no claim of value or edge.",
  "Betfair Starting Price is an exchange price with a small built-in margin. Historical favourite-longshot research largely used bookmaker and pari-mutuel prices, which are different objects."
 ],
 "generated_at": "2026-09-09T15:48:36+01:00"
}